Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Population Growth in the Book of Mormon


The Book of Mormon population growth rate would have to have been more than double that of the Roman Empire and other peers.


Nephite/Lamanite Populations with the most conservative estimates possible:
  • Population Start (Ps) = 100 
    • Number includes both Lehi's family and the Mulekites who colonized during the same period.
  • Lamanite army size estimate using the same number of as the Nephite Army
    • Even though Mormon 6:8 indicates that the Nephites were "filled with terror because of the greatness of their numbers"
  • Warrior to Population ratios used is 1:4
    • Even though anthropologists say 1:5 is the usual ratio.  And they sometimes go as high as 1:6 depending on the type of battles.
References:

[2]  "An Ancient American Setting for the Book of Mormon", John L. Sorenson, BYU Anthropologist
[3]  Pop. Start = 100, Pop. Finish = 1.8 Million = 1.02% Annual Growth Rate See Note [5]
[4]  "Roman Empire Population", Chris Heaton, unrv.com
[5]  "Calculating Growth Rates", University of Oregon, Bob Parker

Other Resources:

[A]  "Multiply Exceedingly", John C. Kunich, Signature Books
[B]  "Population Growth", Wikipedia, 17th-19th Century Growth Rates


From John C. Kunich's "Multiply Exceedingly"
Table 2 - Growth Rates
DATE
U.N.
Smith; Ehrlich
Hauser
Bogue
1650-1750
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.34
1750-1800
0.4
0.5
-
0.5
1800-50
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.43
1850-1900
0.5
0.8
-
0.68
1900-10
0.8
0.8
-
0.65
1910-20
0.8
0.8
-
0.65
1920-30
0.8
0.8
-
1.07
1930-40
0.8
0.8
1
1.11
1940-50
0.8
0.8
-
1.1
1950-60
1.8
1.8
-
1.83
1960-
2
1.8
2
-


Equation to calculate the Growth of a Population:

Where:
Pf   = Population Final
Ps   = Population Start; Ps = 100
r      = Annual Growth Rate
n     = Years of Growth; n = 984



Apologist Response:
http://www.fairlds.org/authors/danderson-steven/adding-up-the-book-of-mormon-peoples

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